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Markets Covered
14
Across 5 states
Reports Available
38
Updated weekly
Stock Listed
12
Ready to present
Avg. Yield Tracked
5.8%
Gross rental
Activity
Melbourne Square report refreshed with Q1 data and new floor plan uploads.
Today · 9:14 AM
Port Hedland research added — exclusive to TPCH channel partners.
Mon 10 Feb · 4:02 PM
Brisbane SE Corridor vacancy rate data updated from REIQ source.
Fri 14 Feb · 11:30 AM
Canberra Inner North report archived — replaced by new combined report.
Thu 13 Feb · 2:15 PM
Perth Northern Suburbs research added with new land release data.
Mon 10 Feb · 10:00 AM
Latest Research
VIC
Melbourne CBD & Surrounds
Strong Buy
Updated 18 Feb
ACT
Canberra — Inner North & South
Strong Buy
Updated 15 Feb
QLD
Brisbane — South East Growth Corridor
Watch
Updated 12 Feb
WA
Perth — Northern Suburbs
Strong Buy
Updated 10 Feb
WA
Port Hedland — Resources Boom
Exclusive
Updated 8 Feb
◈ VIC · Melbourne
Avg Rental Yield
5.1%
↑ Gross rental yield
Capital Growth p.a.
6.2%
↑ 10yr median p.a.
Vacancy Rate
2.4%
↓ Critically tightening
Median Unit Price
$605k
Investor grade
Weekly Rent (median)
$575
↑ +9% YoY
Supply Shortfall (2029)
21,600
↑ apartments deficit
TC
TPCH Perspective — Our View
Melbourne is the standout contrarian opportunity in Australia right now.
While Sydney commands headlines, Melbourne has quietly been building the conditions for a significant re-rating. The pandemic hangover suppressed prices artificially — extended lockdowns and investor exodus created a buying window that is now closing. With net overseas migration at decade highs, a 60% pipeline shortfall confirmed by Urbis, and Melbourne priced 41% below Sydney at a 20-year discount, the fundamentals are as compelling as we've seen in any market. We're not just watching this market — we're actively presenting it to clients who want income now and capital growth on a 3–5 year horizon. The supply cliff is real and confirmed by multiple independent sources. We believe Melbourne CBD and inner suburbs will be one of the top performing markets in Australia by 2028.
Conviction
Strong Buy
Investment Thesis
Melbourne's CBD and inner suburbs represent one of the most compelling yield and growth opportunities in Australia. Record low vacancy rates driven by the return of international students, a decade-high migration wave, and severely constrained new supply are converging to create exceptional rental demand pressure across all product types.
Construction completions in FY2025 will be the lowest on record — just 3,070 build-to-sell apartments, a 50% drop from FY2024. Against annual demand of 15,000+ dwellings, the gap is structural and will not be resolved in the near term. Buyers entering today are purchasing below replacement cost, meaning market prices must eventually catch up to what it costs to build new.
Supply vs. Demand
Source: Urbis · City of Melbourne
Pipeline (2024–28)
8,900
apartments in central Melbourne pipeline
Demand (2024–28)
21,600
dwellings needed — a 60% shortfall
The Victorian Government's target of 80,000 homes per year is already falling short by 20,000 annually. Roughly 48% of the apartment pipeline is stalled due to labour shortages and a 20–30% surge in material costs. This is not a short-term correction — it is a structural supply deficit locked in for the medium term.
Annual Pipeline vs. Demand (units)
Key Demand Drivers
Source: ABS · Urbis · SQM
- Net overseas migration into Victoria at decade highs — 140,000+ per annum, with Melbourne on track to surpass Sydney as Australia's largest city by 2032. Source: ABS, VIF23
- FY2025 apartment completions will be the lowest on record — just 3,070 BTS apartments, a 50% drop from the prior year. Source: Urbis
- Melbourne median house prices are currently 41% cheaper than Sydney's — the largest discount in 20 years, creating exceptional relative value. Source: TPCH Research
- International student enrolments recovering strongly — University of Melbourne and Monash both ranked top 3% globally, sustaining inner-city rental demand. Source: Urbis
- $107 billion Victorian Infrastructure Plan confirmed — including Suburban Rail Loop, Melbourne Greenline ($224m), and Queen Victoria Market renewal ($268m). Source: Urbis
- Major banks forecasting RBA cash rate to drop to 3.35–3.85% by Dec 2025, expected to materially stimulate apartment demand and price growth. Source: ANZ, NAB, CBA, Westpac via Urbis
The Intrinsic Value Case
Source: TPCH · Cordell CCCI
New apartments in 2025 must be priced 30% higher than those in 2020 just to break even on construction costs. Victorian construction costs have increased 25.5% between 2019–20 and 2023–24. Buying existing stock today means purchasing below replacement cost — a rare condition where market prices are structurally forced to catch up over time.
Yield vs Sydney
5.1%
vs. Sydney 2.9%
Const. Cost Rise
+25.5%
Victoria 2019–24
Growth Forecast
28–30%
by 2030 (analyst consensus)
Rental Market Performance
Source: SQM · Apartment Essentials · Urbis
CBD apartment median weekly rent reached $750 in the year to November 2024, up from $690 the prior year. CBD apartments command an average premium of 5%+ over broader inner Melbourne, with higher premiums for 1–2 bed units. Vacancy averaged 2.4% across 2024, hitting a low of 1.6% in March.
Weekly Rents by Typology — CBD vs Inner Melbourne
Source: Apartment Essentials, Urbis — Year to Nov 2024
Economic Environment
Source: ABS · RBA · Urbis
Unemployment
4.0%
Below 10yr avg of 5.3%
Inflation (CPI)
2.8%
Down from 5.4% — 3.5yr low
Net Migration (2024)
+446,000
Persons — year ending Jun 2024
Consumer Confidence
+12pts
YoY improvement Dec 2024
Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ–Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence — Dec 2024
Infrastructure Pipeline
Source: Urbis · Vic Govt.
2025
Melbourne Greenline — Stage 1
$224m project delivering a 4km riverside public space along the Yarra in CBD. Enhances liveability and walkability of inner precincts.
2025
Melbourne Walk — Bourke Street Mall
First major delivery in 50 years — 37,000 sqm commercial space, 6,000 sqm retail across 45 tenancies. Activates the CBD core.
2029
Queen Victoria Market Renewal
$268m restoration creating new open spaces, restaurants, bars, events — strengthening the market's precinct as a lifestyle destination.
2035
Suburban Rail Loop — SRL East
Connects Frankston to Werribee via Melbourne Airport. Reduces travel times across middle suburbs and supports new housing precincts at Clayton, Broadmeadows and Sunshine.
Total Victorian Infrastructure Plan: $107 billion committed for Melbourne and surrounding regions. Source: Urbis
Risk Factors to Monitor
- Victorian land tax environment remains elevated — confirm impact on holding costs for investor clients before presentation. Source: SRO Victoria
- Heated developer environment — stalled projects may resume if costs ease, adding supply risk in 2026–27. Source: TPCH
- Body corporate levies for large-amenity towers can be material — always confirm OC fees with client before signing. Source: TPCH
- Interest rate path remains uncertain — while consensus is downward, any delay will defer price recovery. Source: RBA
All Research Reports
VIC
Melbourne CBD & Surrounds
Strong Buy
18 Feb 2025
ACT
Canberra — Inner North & South
Strong Buy
15 Feb 2025
QLD
Brisbane — South East Growth Corridor
Watch
12 Feb 2025
WA
Perth — Northern Suburbs
Strong Buy
10 Feb 2025
WA
Port Hedland — Resources Boom
Exclusive
8 Feb 2025
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